Deterrence and the Challenge of Public Opinion

Deterrence is not warmongering, but the fundamental tool for avoiding war. The perception of strength prevents conflict, but only if backed by a real and credible capacity to respond. Informing public opinion of this truth is the first step toward ensuring lasting peace.

The “Non-Event” – The main problem with deterrence is that its success is measured by a “non-event”: the absence of an attack. When deterrence works 100%, people feel that the risk of war is near zero. As a result, citizens and voters stop seeing military spending as essential insurance and start seeing it as a waste of public money.

This report is divided into two parts:

1. The Deterrence Dilemma and the Public Perception Trap: Based on case studies (both positive and negative), this part analyses the strategic reasons for deterrence and the “Paradox of Prevention and Public Perception” from the fall of the Berlin Wall to the sudden return of conflict today. (full document Part 1 available here)
2. The Cost of Wrong Analysis: From the Disarmament Cycle to Deterrence Failure: Starting with a description of the Disarmament Cycle, this part provides an economic analysis of disarmament and compares the costs of success against the costs of failure (full document Part 2 will be published soon)